Resources
A map, not a pile of links.
Start with the question you have. These selected guides and articles explain the product, the data, and the market mechanics behind the numbers.
Practical guides
Choose a path
Start here
How to use the sandbox
A practical path through Builder, Discover, results and virtual Portfolio.
DataWhat can I test?
Understand why recorded history, current coverage and feature eligibility are different.
MethodWhat does the result mean?
See the assumptions behind historical simulations and later paper tracking.
Selected reading
Six useful first reads
Every recommendation leads to an existing published article. The full dated archive remains in Blog.
Reading the oddsA 60% market is not offering you a 40% profitA displayed chance is not the same as a buyable position.Reading the oddsThe spread is a toll boothWhat it costs to go in and out before the event resolves.Building PaperMantisIt took four versions to get hereWhy this project became a virtual prediction-market sandbox.Building PaperMantisThe backtest ends before the experiment doesWhy the later virtual record needs its own place.Markets & rulesThe title is not the contractWhy the written settlement rule deserves a closer look.Markets & rulesThe election market that looked like a classroom experimentA short trip to the Iowa market's origin.